{"data":{"election":"btw-2029","parties":[{"party":"AfD","name":"AfD","poll_average":28.1,"median":28.1,"ci95":[18.8,39.5],"entry_probability":100.0},{"party":"CDU/CSU","name":"Union (CDU/CSU)","poll_average":19.6,"median":19.6,"ci95":[11.5,31.3],"entry_probability":100.0},{"party":"Grüne","name":"Grüne","poll_average":15.0,"median":15.0,"ci95":[8.3,25.9],"entry_probability":100.0},{"party":"SPD","name":"SPD","poll_average":14.0,"median":14.0,"ci95":[7.1,25.9],"entry_probability":99.9},{"party":"Linke","name":"Linke","poll_average":10.8,"median":10.8,"ci95":[5.0,22.0],"entry_probability":97.7},{"party":"FDP","name":"FDP","poll_average":4.5,"median":4.5,"ci95":[1.5,13.6],"entry_probability":44.3},{"party":"BSW","name":"BSW","poll_average":3.5,"median":3.5,"ci95":[1.0,10.5],"entry_probability":28.4}]},"updated_at":"2026-10-23 08:00:08","model":{"version":"4.16","simulations":10000,"point_estimate":"weighted_poll_avg (Fenster 5, temporal_decay_14d + institute_quality)","polls_used":5},"uncertainty":"ci95: range that contains the result with 95 percent probability in the simulation. Out of sample in 2026 the band held 17 of 21 values (81 percent).","source":{"polls":"dawum.de","polls_license":"ODbL 1.0","polls_license_url":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/","processing":"polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)"},"notice":"Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalition figures count simulated seat majorities (see arithmetic_majorities_note where given), not statements about political feasibility.","project":"Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)","docs":"https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/"}